000
WTPZ44 KNHC 302034
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012
 
ILEANA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE SINCE THIS MORNING. A CURVED
BAND OF CONVECTION NOW WRAPS COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER...AND A
RAGGED BANDED EYE HAS APPEARED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO A
CONSENSUS T4.5...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.
ILEANA IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...ILEANA WILL MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AFTER THAT
TIME. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 3 DAYS.

ILEANA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 5 KT.  A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS ILEANA MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS OVER
THE TRACK OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS.  THE GFS DEPICTS
A DEEPER TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CYCLONE THAT RESULTS IN A
CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW OF ILEANA TURNING
WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS 
TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION...WHICH IS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED TRACK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 20.5N 114.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 21.1N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 21.9N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 22.8N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 23.4N 118.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 24.3N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/1800Z 25.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/1800Z 25.5N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN