000
WTPZ44 KNHC 300842
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
200 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

ALTHOUGH THE EYE FEATURE IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME...THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
A FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS.  T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE CIRCULATION OF ILEANA IS
APPROACHING COOLER WATERS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING...AND ILEANA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72
HOURS. 
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325 DEGREES AT 7
KNOTS.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY AN
EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A
GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AS
THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ILEANA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND BECOME STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IN THE LONG
RANGE...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE ONCE AGAIN IN DISAGREEMENT AS IN 
THE PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE GFS INSISTS ON MOVING ILEANA MORE NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS INDICATING THAT ILEANA
WILL MISS THE TROUGH AND TURN WEST.  FORTUNATELY...ILEANA IS
FORECAST TO BE A WEAK REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME PERIOD.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 19.7N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 20.6N 114.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 22.3N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 24.0N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/0600Z 24.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA