000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300249 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012 800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2012 THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THERE IS AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE...ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT ILEANA HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...THE CIRCULATION OF ILEANA IS APPROACHING LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AT THE SAME INTENSITY FOR ONLY 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT ILEANA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. ILEANA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ILEANA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS FORECASTS ILEANA TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT ILEANA WILL MISS THE TROUGH AND TURN WEST. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT...ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BE A WEAK REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 19.1N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 20.0N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 20.8N 114.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 23.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 24.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0000Z 25.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA