000
WTPZ44 KNHC 100852
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS DUE WEST...OR 270/14 KT. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. DANIEL SHOULD MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SITUATED TO ITS NORTH...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS
MODEL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DANIEL SHOULD MOVE ACROSS 140W
LONGITUDE AND PASS INTO THE NOAA CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.

DANIEL HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND AN EYE HAS EVEN OCCASIONALLY BEEN
EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE
EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME INDISTINCT IN BOTH INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT
FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. DANIEL SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DESPITE
MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 15.4N 133.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 15.4N 136.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 15.5N 139.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 15.5N 142.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 15.5N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 15.4N 151.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0600Z 15.2N 157.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART