000
WTPZ44 KNHC 100232
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DANIEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE SMALL CDO REMAINING
NEARLY STEADY. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.0/65 KT
...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER
SSTS OF 24-25C FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3
AND DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48
HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE DUE WESTWARD...AND IS NOW A
LITTLE FASTER AT 15 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL WILL KEEP
THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 15.4N 132.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 15.4N 134.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 15.5N 137.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 15.5N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN