000
WTPZ44 KNHC 091455
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012
 
THIS MORNING...DANIEL HAS SHOWN AN EYE INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN A SMALL
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FROM THE GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED IMAGERY. A
0912Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM THE NRL SITE SUGGESTS THAT THE
HURRICANE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED A SECONDARY EYEWALL AT A RADIUS OF
ABOUT 30 NM WITH A REMNANT INNER EYEWALL STILL APPARENT AT A 10 NM
RADIUS. BOTH SAB AND TAFB PROVIDE DVORAK NUMBERS UNCHANGED AT
4.0/5.0...YET THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED BY ABOUT 10 KT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A
BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES PROVIDES OUR 75 KT INTENSITY ANALYSIS.
 
DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KT...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
POLEWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TREK OF DANIEL
AND LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
DANIEL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT
PROGRESSES OVER COOL 24-25C WATERS WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
VERY LOW.  AROUND 48 TO 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE COMBINATION OF STABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND MORE HOSTILE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE DANIEL TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
STATISTICAL METHODS AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
THE ANALYSIS OF THE INITIAL SIZE OF DANIEL WAS ASSISTED BY A 0530Z
ASCAT PASS AND A 1029Z AMSU CIRA WIND RADII ESTIMATE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 15.3N 129.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 15.4N 131.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 15.5N 134.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 15.6N 137.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 15.7N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 15.6N 146.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1200Z 15.5N 151.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z 15.0N 158.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA