000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090859 TCDEP4 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 200 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012 CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS DANIEL MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT AND T5.0/90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT CIRA/NESDIS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 82 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 275/13 KT. DANIEL IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE STRONG AND EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE. DESPITE BEING IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 24C AND INGESTS MORE STABLE AIR. DURING THE 48-72 HOUR TIME PERIOD...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT...WHICH COULD INDUCE MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN EXPECTED...CAUSING DANIEL TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 15.4N 127.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 15.5N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 15.6N 132.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 15.7N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 15.8N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 15.8N 144.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 15.6N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z 15.4N 156.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART