000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090239
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012
 
DANIEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SUB-25C WATERS.
HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO WARM...AND
THE CLOUD-FILLED 10-15 N MI WIDE EYE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
OBSCURED IN LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE AT T5.0/90 KT AT 0000 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 85 KT BASED ON THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE
CYCLONE SINCE THAT TIME. WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO REMAIN
LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MAIN CONTRIBUTION TO
WEAKENING SHOULD BE THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
RE-INTENSIFICATION EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER
SOMEWHAT WARMER WATERS. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE LGEM
AND INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
 
DANIEL HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A STEADY MOTION OF 275/12. THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER DANIEL WESTWARD AT A SIMILAR
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER WEAKENING TO A SHALLOW
CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE COULD INDUCE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CONTINUES
TO LIE BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 15.3N 126.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 15.4N 128.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 15.6N 131.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 15.7N 134.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 15.7N 137.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 15.9N 143.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 15.7N 149.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0000Z 15.5N 155.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN