000
WTPZ44 KNHC 081433
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012
 
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 90 KT...AND
THIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED.  SINCE DANIEL WILL BE
TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS AND MOVING THROUGH A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM AND INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. 

THE MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...275/12. 
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD FORCE A CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 15.1N 123.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 15.3N 125.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 15.6N 128.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 15.9N 131.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 16.0N 134.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 16.0N 140.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 16.0N 146.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 16.0N 152.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH