000
WTPZ44 KNHC 080850
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012
 
DANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED SOME MORE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -75C AND THE EYE HAS BECOME
MORE DISTINCT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED
TO 100 KT...MAKING DANIEL A MAJOR HURRICANE. IT IS SOMEWHAT
SUPRISING THAT DANIEL IS STILL GAINING STRENGTH AS THE EYE HAS
CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM. I CAN ONLY ASSUME THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS THESE LOW WATER TEMPERATURES
TYPICALLY CAUSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LESSEN...RESULTING IN A
DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND
OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS AND SHOWS DANIEL STEADILY WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATER
AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS
AT 0554 UTC. THIS SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE COMPACT WIND
FIELD OF DANIEL.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 15.1N 122.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 15.3N 124.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 15.9N 129.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 16.1N 132.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 16.2N 138.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 16.2N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 16.0N 150.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI