000
WTPZ44 KNHC 062036
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012
 
THE STRUCTURE OF DANIEL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WITH A CDO PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER BUT NO SIGNS OF AN
EYE FORMING YET IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 18Z DVORAK FIXES FROM TAFB
AND SAB. WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW...DANIEL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS
LEFT BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE
STATUS IS STILL SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH HAS THE
SUPPORT OF MORE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE. RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE LGEM THEREAFTER. 

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SUGGESTS THAT
THE CENTER OF DANIEL IS LOCATED SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND HAS
BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AT AROUND 10 KT.
A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS
DANIEL MOVES SOUTH OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC
TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR THE MORE
SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION AND THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS
RESULTS IN A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF 15 TO 20 NM THROUGH THE PERIOD
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 14.4N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 14.6N 117.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 14.8N 119.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 15.0N 122.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 15.4N 124.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 16.0N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 16.0N 142.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN