000
WTPZ44 KNHC 060855
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012
 
DANIEL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A TIMELY
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0455 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TILT BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CENTERS.  OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
ALL AROUND T3.5...SO THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT.  

IT IS A RATHER TRICKY INTENSITY FORECAST THIS MORNING.  DANIEL 
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH FAVORS STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER
GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE
CYCLONE TO RESPOND TO THESE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.  THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF AND NOW KEEP DANIEL JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE GFDL AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE STILL
MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE AND SO WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
HOWEVER...THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW...DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER INTO A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS IN 36-48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. 
DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 5 DAYS.

THERE IS MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  DANIEL IS
CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT.  A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD 
COURSE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE
PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 14.6N 114.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 14.9N 115.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 15.2N 118.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 15.3N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 15.5N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 16.0N 127.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 16.7N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN