000
WTPZ44 KNHC 051434
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 AM PDT THU JUL 05 2012
 
A 0930Z AMSU PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN SHOWING THE LOCATION OF THE
CYCLONE AND INDICATED THAT A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPED ABOUT
HALFWAY AROUND THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION AND THE
OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED
ON THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KT BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AS THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR RELAXING A BIT WHILE
THE CYCLONE IS STILL OVER WARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS
GIVEN THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...AND SHOWS A PEAK OF 60 KT IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE HWRF. AFTER THAT
TIME...DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY
WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AT DAYS
3 THROUGH 5 BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF DANIEL IS
LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 285/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO...AS DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 14.2N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 14.6N 112.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 15.0N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 15.3N 116.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 15.5N 118.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 16.0N 123.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 17.0N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN