000
WTPZ44 KNHC 050839
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 AM PDT THU JUL 05 2012
 
IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION 
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE OR
SCATTEROMETER DATA.  GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE HAS BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT 
IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT
11 KT.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY...THEN
TURN MORE WESTWARD BY FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. 

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  DURING THAT TIME...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN 
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  AS A
RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND 
IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS.  BY 72 HOURS...THE 
CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING IN THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 13.9N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 14.3N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 14.8N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 15.2N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 15.3N 117.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 15.5N 122.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 15.8N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 16.3N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN