000
WTPZ44 KNHC 040837
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 AM PDT WED JUL 04 2012
 
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED
CENTER AND ENOUGH ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE ASCAT
DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. 

SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING ON THIS GENERAL HEADING AND SPEED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE 
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF 
DAYS AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS...HOWEVER MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST DURING MOST OF THAT TIME.  AS A RESULT...ONLY GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.  SOME
WEAKENING IS SHOWN BY DAY 5 AS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
COOLER WATERS BY THAT TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 12.3N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 13.0N 106.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 13.8N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 14.4N 110.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 14.7N 112.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 15.0N 116.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 15.2N 121.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 15.8N 125.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN