000
WTPZ44 KNHC 301443
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2011
 
HILARY HAS BEEN PRODUCING A LITTLE BIT OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
CENTER...BUT IT CAN HARDLY BE DESCRIBED AS DEEP SINCE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE BARELY REACHING -50C.  THE DEPRESSION HAS GONE
ABOUT 12 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...AND IT WILL
LIKELY BE DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  THE INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 30 KT...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DISSIPATION INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 3.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY SLOW SPEED BEFORE
IT DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS.  MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
NORTHEAST OF...AND SLOWER THAN...THE TVCE CONSENSUS SINCE THE ECMWF
MODEL INDICATES A MOTION CLOSER TO DUE NORTH. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 23.0N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 23.4N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/1200Z 23.6N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0000Z 23.7N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1200Z 23.7N 123.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG