000
WTPZ44 KNHC 300844
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2011
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY DIMINISHED AROUND 0200 UTC
YESTERDAY EVENING...AND ALL THAT REMAINS IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN
THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WHICH IS GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION.
CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN ABSENT QUITE LONG ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW.  A 0448 UTC ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 25-KT WINDS EAST OF THE CENTER.  GIVEN THE
WELL-DOCUMENTED LOW BIAS OF THIS INSTRUMENT...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILARY
MOVES OVER 22-23C WATERS.  DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 2-3
DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/06.  STRIPPED OF ITS DEEP
CONVECTION AND NOW SHALLOW IN NATURE...HILARY SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION COULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR EVEN
SOUTHWESTWARD PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A
TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A BIT FASTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 22.5N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 23.0N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/0600Z 23.3N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1800Z 23.4N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0600Z 23.3N 123.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/0600Z 23.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN