000
WTPZ44 KNHC 300248
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2011

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. 
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SSTS BELOW 23 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IT IS
LIKELY TO ONLY PRODUCE A FEW INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
CONSERVATIVELY TO 40 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED A HIGHER INTENSITY 
THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES THIS AFTERNOON.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON FRIDAY. 
 
HILARY HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. 
THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN 3-4 DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 21.9N 120.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 22.6N 121.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  01/0000Z 23.2N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1200Z 23.4N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0000Z 23.3N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN