000
WTPZ44 KNHC 250233
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011
 
ALMOST EVERYTHING ABOUT HURRICANE HILARY HAS BEEN ALREADY SAID. THE
HURRICANE IS SMALL AND INTENSE AND BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES
CONTINUES WITH 115 KNOTS. THERE IS NOTHING NEW TO REPORT AT THIS
TIME EXCEPT THAT THE LATEST AMSR IMAGE SHOWS TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS
SURROUNDING THE INNER CORE...AND THESE BANDS COULD BECOME AN OUTER
EYEWALL. IF SO...IT SHOULD RESULT IN SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED IN EVERY
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR HILARY TO
BEGIN WEAKENING SLOWLY. 

HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...STEERED
BY THE EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 3 MORE DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A DEEP TROUGH OR A LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE
NORTHWEST OF HILARY...AND THIS NEW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE
TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE MOST MARKED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME IS THAT NOW ALL TRACK MODELS EVENTUALLY TURN
HILARY NORTHWARD. YESTERDAY...JUST A FEW MODELS DID SO. THIS
INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE THAT HILARY SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD...AND
THEREFOE IT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS TURN AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD MAKE THE WEAKENING TREND MORE
MARKED SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER
WATERS FASTER THAN IF THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WESTWARD.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 17.1N 107.7W  115 KT 135 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 17.2N 109.0W  115 KT 135 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 17.3N 110.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 17.5N 112.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 20.0N 116.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA