000
WTPZ44 KNHC 230240
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2011
 
HILARY IS A SMALL BUT POWERFUL HURRICANE. IT HAS DEVELOPED A
DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS. IN FACT...LATEST OBJECTIVE NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT HILARY COULD
BE EVEN STRONGER. SINCE THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...HILARY
COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HAVING
SAID THAT...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. 

HILARY HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 8
KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH
SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...KEEPING THE CORE OF THE
SMALL HURRICANE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE GFDL/HWRF FAMILY TURNS
HILARY NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OR THE SEA OF CORTES IN THE
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE
HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 16.0N 100.8W  115 KT 135 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 16.4N 102.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 16.7N 104.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 17.0N 105.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 18.0N 110.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA