000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221433 TCDEP4 HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 800 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2011 MICROWAVE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE INNER-CORE OF HILARY IS WELL ORGANIZED. A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EVIDENT AROUND THE SMALL AND NEARLY CIRCULAR EYE. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY AN OCCASIONAL EYE VISIBLE. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS JUST WEST OF HILARY...AND IT IS UNKNOWN IF THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND ON THIS BASIS HILARY IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF HILARY...WHICH COULD BE RAPID...IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE HURRICANE REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS AROUND 29C. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND BRINGS HILARY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. BEYOND 72 HOURS...HILARY WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...STABLE AIR...AND OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS THE HURRICANE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOWING RECURVATURE WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP HILARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND IS NEAR THE ECMWF MODEL. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT HILARY IS A COMPACT HURRICANE WITH THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTENDING ABOUT 60 N MI FROM THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.1N 98.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.6N 100.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 16.2N 102.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 17.1N 105.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 18.0N 108.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 19.0N 111.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 19.5N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH