000
WTPZ44 KNHC 212033
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
200 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2011
 
HILARY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN.  SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CENTER HAS GAINED CURVATURE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED
AND NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN STEADILY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS REMAIN FAVORABLE.  IN FACT...THE GFDL...
HWRF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE MODELS BRING HILARY TO
MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THREE DAYS OR LESS.  ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODELS...IT IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF HILARY WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS
305/5. A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE HILARY REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER PACE AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN
NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT TWO
TO THREE DAYS...BUT IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED.
 
THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 14.0N  96.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 14.3N  97.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 14.9N  98.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 15.6N 100.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 16.2N 102.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 17.4N 106.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 18.5N 109.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 19.0N 112.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH