000
WTPZ44 KNHC 211438
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...AND THE
LATEST MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A
LARGE CURVED BAND EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE AND A LESS-DEFINED BAND EXISTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATES. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS NOW TROPICAL STORM HILARY.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
HILARY REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS OF
28-29C. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR HILARY TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THIS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE AGGRESSIVE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS AND THE LESS
ENTHUSIASTIC LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS. 
 
HILARY IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/5.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
WEAK STEERING FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY...SO A CONTINUED SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO THE
NORTH OF HILARY WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO ACCELERATE SOME AND REMAIN
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVEN THE UNREALISTIC-LOOKING
NOGAPS SOLUTION.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HILARY.  ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 13.6N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 13.9N  97.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 14.5N  98.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 15.1N 100.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 15.7N 101.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 16.8N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 18.0N 108.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI