000
WTPZ44 KNHC 241436
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2011
 
DORA HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF ITS CIRCULATION...AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE DORA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEASURE THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER 21 DEG C WATERS...IT WILL
PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION MUCH LONGER...AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE
TONIGHT.  AS NOTED EARLIER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION DISSIPATING WITHIN 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DORA IS
BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
PREDICTIONS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THIS IS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 23.5N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 24.4N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 25.5N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0000Z 26.4N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH