000
WTPZ44 KNHC 240843
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2011
 
DORA HAD LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AROUND 0000 UTC BUT HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED A SMALL BURST ABOUT 60 N MI SOUTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY SPINNING
DOWN...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
THE UW-CIMMS ADT.  DORA IS NOW OVER 21-22C WATER AND WILL BE UNABLE
TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT IT
WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

DORA IS STILL MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 320/8.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT
THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NEAR-SURFACE CENTERS OF CIRCULATION.  THIS NEW
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ALONG
THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS
HOLD ON TO AN AREA OF VORTICITY AT 850 MB FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...THEY ALL SHOW THE 10-METER WIND CIRCULATION OPENING UP WELL
BEFORE THEN...AND DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 23.0N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 23.9N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 24.9N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/1800Z 26.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG