000
WTPZ44 KNHC 240242
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
 
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DORA THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS
RELEASED...BUT NOTHING AT THE SURFACE ANY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
OBSERVED.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED.  BASED ON THE
ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS SINCE THE TIME OF THE AIRCRAFT MISSION...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.  WITH THE CYCLONE OVER 23C
WATER AND HEADING FOR EVEN COLDER WATER...A CONTINUED SPIN DOWN IS
FORECAST.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/10.  THIS
IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUIDANCE IS
ALSO A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE MID- AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING IN
A DAY OR SO...WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS TURNING WESTWARD AND THE
LOW-LEVEL VORTEX MOVING TOWARD THE COAST...BUT THAT SEPARATION
MIGHT BE OCCURRING NOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND STILL CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
MEAN.  THE REGIONAL MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE COAST
THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT EVEN IF THAT SHOULD HAPPEN THERE
WILL BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF DORA BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 22.5N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 23.3N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/1200Z 25.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0000Z 28.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN