000
WTPZ44 KNHC 232056
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
 
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DORA HAS REPORTED
850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT AND 44 KT ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE SFMR.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB.  BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS
STILL PRODUCING CONVECTION...MOST NOTABLY IN A NARROW BAND TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FROM 48-96 HR WHEN IT APPEARS THE REMNANT TROUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 48 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER.  THE NEW
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.
 
DORA IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE LIFE OF THE CYCLONE.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK DECREASE TO 19C BY 72 HR...AND THUS DORA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HR.  THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WEAKENING TO
A TROUGH IN 72-96 HR...SO THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT
THAT TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 21.7N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 22.4N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 23.5N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0600Z 24.6N 115.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1800Z 25.4N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z 27.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN