000 WTPZ44 KNHC 231436 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DORA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF TWO SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72-96 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE 72-96 HR PERIOD WHERE IT APPEARS THE REMNANT TROUGH COULD COME CLOSER TO NORTHERN BAJA THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER. ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED SINCE LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...DORA IS MOVING OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR DORA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 12 HR OR LESS AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HR. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN 72-96 HR...SO THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AS THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DORA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 21.3N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 22.1N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 23.3N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 24.4N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 25.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 26.5N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN