000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220850 TCDEP4 HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011 STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON HURRICANE DORA THIS MORNING. WHAT WAS ONCE...JUST A FEW HOURS AGO...A WARM EYE SURROUNDED BY QUITE COLD CLOUD TOPS IS NOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL VORTEX WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE FOUND ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. RAW DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND ADT HAVE ALL PLUMMETED. ASSUMING THAT IT TAKES SOME LAG TIME FOR THE WINDS TO WEAKEN AS MUCH AS THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 90 KT...20 KT WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WHILE THE STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY...DORA WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITHIN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING OVER 23C WATER AND MOVING THROUGH AN ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM-SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS...BUT SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE. THIS SAME FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE STEERING DORA NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE WEAKENING...AMSU AND ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE THAT DORA EXHIBITS A SUBSTANTIALLY SMALLER 34-KT WIND RADII THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. THIS SUGGESTS A DIMINISHED RISK OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS SHOWN IN THE REDUCED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 18.9N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 20.5N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 21.4N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 22.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 24.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 26.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 27.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART