000
WTPZ44 KNHC 202037
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
200 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2011
 
DORA IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING.  RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED WITH INTENSE CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL
AND OCCASIONAL HINTS OF MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EYE.  DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102 AND 90 KT RESPECTIVELY...WITH
THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS AT 115 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE
DATA GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 100 KT...MAKING DORA THE SECOND
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2011 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.
 
NOW THAT THE INNER CORE HAS SOLIDIFIED...DORA WILL PROBABLY
INTENSIFY AT A RAPID RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.   ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW SHOW
DORA PEAKING NEAR OR AT CATEGORY 4 STATUS TOMORROW.  IN FACT THE
SHIP RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A 46 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
40 KT INCREASE WITHIN 24 HOURS...A RATHER HIGH VALUE. FROM THE 1800
UTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 95 KT...THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL INDICATE A 24-HOUR PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.  IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...SSTS FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...AND
SO SHOULD THE WINDS OF DORA.  THE LATER PART OF THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND DORA SHOULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS MOVING 295/14.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...SAVE THE
HWRF...KEEP DORA WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ACTUALLY
TURN THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.
THE OVERALL TRACK ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE
LONGER RANGE...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN MOVED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 15.5N 104.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 16.5N 105.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 17.7N 107.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 18.7N 108.8W  115 KT 135 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 19.6N 109.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 22.5N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 24.5N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE