000
WTPZ44 KNHC 191446
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DORA IS STRENGTHENING.  THE INFRARED
AND VISIBLE CHANNELS BOTH SUGGEST THAT A RAGGED EYE IS ATTEMPTING
TO FORM...WITH A SIMILAR STRUCTURE NOTED ON MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT
TREND OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION.  CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
FORECAST TO FORM NEAR DORA AND VERY WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE
STRENGTHENING...AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE SUITE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL MODEL PREDICTION. 
IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...DORA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATER...AND BEGIN A
PRECIPITOUS DECLINE.

THE STORM HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 13 KT.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER TODAY DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  IN A
FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE TO THE
EAST...WHICH COULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE
GFDL/HWRF DO SHOW A SLIGHT THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE LONG
RANGE.  FOR NOW THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES SUGGEST SOME
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS DORA PASSES.  HOWEVER...THE CURRENT TRACK
AND SIZE FORECAST DOES NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES AND/OR
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 11.9N  97.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 12.6N  99.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 13.7N 101.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 15.0N 104.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 16.1N 105.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 18.1N 108.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 20.0N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 22.0N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 191446
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DORA IS STRENGTHENING.  THE INFRARED
AND VISIBLE CHANNELS BOTH SUGGEST THAT A RAGGED EYE IS ATTEMPTING
TO FORM...WITH A SIMILAR STRUCTURE NOTED ON MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT
TREND OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION.  CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
FORECAST TO FORM NEAR DORA AND VERY WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE
STRENGTHENING...AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE SUITE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL MODEL PREDICTION. 
IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...DORA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATER...AND BEGIN A
PRECIPITOUS DECLINE.

THE STORM HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 13 KT.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER TODAY DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  IN A
FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE TO THE
EAST...WHICH COULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE
GFDL/HWRF DO SHOW A SLIGHT THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE LONG
RANGE.  FOR NOW THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES SUGGEST SOME
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS DORA PASSES.  HOWEVER...THE CURRENT TRACK
AND SIZE FORECAST DOES NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES AND/OR
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 11.9N  97.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 12.6N  99.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 13.7N 101.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 15.0N 104.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 16.1N 105.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 18.1N 108.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 20.0N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 22.0N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE