000
WTPZ44 KNHC 270834
TCDEP4
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010
 
FRANK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE EYE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN
APPARENT IN MICROWAVE DATA FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO IS NO LONGER
EVIDENT. IN ADDITION...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS SHRUNK AND
ERODED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 65 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 70 KT. A COMBINATION OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...A
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/9...AND IS
RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
 
AN AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SITE MAINTAINED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY
ON SOCORRO ISLAND REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 44 KT AT 0300 UTC AND A
PRESSURE OF 997.1 MB.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 18.6N 112.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 19.1N 113.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 19.7N 114.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 114.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 21.1N 114.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 22.3N 114.2W    30 KT
 96HR VT     31/0600Z 23.5N 114.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     01/0600Z 24.5N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI