000
WTPZ44 KNHC 270233
TCDEP4
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
800 PM PDT THU AUG 26 2010
 
FRANK HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY.  THE EYE SEEN EARLIER IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AS THE SUN
SET AND A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED THAT THE
EYE HAS OPENED UP.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE AS FRANK MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND 
INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FRANK HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/9.  THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE HURRICANE
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS AN
EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND AS
SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONGER CYCLONE THAT MOVES
FARTHER NORTHWARD.  THE NHC FORECAST PREDICTS A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS AS FRANK IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
A SHALLOW SYSTEM.

AN AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SITE MAINTAINED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY
ON SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 38 KT AND A
PRESSURE OF 997.5 MB.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 18.2N 111.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 18.6N 112.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.2N 113.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 19.9N 114.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 20.7N 114.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 21.6N 114.3W    35 KT
 96HR VT     31/0000Z 22.7N 114.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     01/0000Z 24.0N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN