000
WTPZ44 KNHC 220832
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED AS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  BANDING FEATURES...HOWEVER...ARE NOT
WELL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
SAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY.  GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH.  BASED ON THE SHIPS OUTPUT...THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LESS THAN 10 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. 
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS COULD LIMIT
STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUCH AS A DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER IS NOT VERY EASY TO LOCATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/6.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
NONE OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CENTER VERY CLOSE
THE COAST OF MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON A TRACK PARALLELING THE COAST...THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLOWER THAN THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK CONSENSUS.

IT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 13.7N  94.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 13.7N  95.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 13.8N  96.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 14.0N  98.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 14.3N  99.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 15.4N 102.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N 107.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH