000
WTPZ44 KNHC 290254
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2010
 
CELIA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS
NOW...THE COOL WATERS HAVING REDUCED IT TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.
EVEN THOUGH CELIA IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW...SATELLITE
PICTURES AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE ASSOCIATED
CIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY VIGOROUS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 30 KT...BUT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BECAUSE THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OVER COOL WATERS.
 
CELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
080/2...THOUGH RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE REMNANT LOW OF CELIA IS BEING STEERED BY
ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WEST OF ABOUT 125 WEST LONGITUDE.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW...THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
COURSE UNTIL DISSIPATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON CELIA.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH  SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 15.2N 123.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 15.3N 123.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 15.4N 123.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN