000
WTPZ44 KNHC 282035
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2010
 
ALL CONVECTION WITH CELIA HAS VANISHED AND ONLY THE SKELETAL REMAINS
OF THE SYSTEM ARE LEFT BEHIND.  CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN GONE QUITE
LONG ENOUGH FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW...BUT THIS
IS PROBABLY THE PENULTIMATE ADVISORY ON CELIA.  THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS LOWERED TO 30 KT...AND A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS IS
EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER COOL WATERS.  THE DEPRESSION
IS DRIFTING EASTWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 15.1N 123.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 15.1N 123.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 15.1N 123.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 15.1N 123.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE