000
WTPZ44 KNHC 281434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT MON JUN 28 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND VERY
LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVER CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH
...BUT THE INTENSITY IS HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS EXPECTED...AND CELIA SHOULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AND DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 15.2N 124.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 15.3N 124.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.3N 124.2W    25 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 15.3N 124.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 15.3N 124.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN