000
WTPZ44 KNHC 280849
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 AM PDT MON JUN 28 2010
 
RECENT TRMM AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS WRAPPED SOUTHWARD AND THE CURRENT
CENTER IS ANALYZED TO BE EAST OF THIS CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. TAFB
AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINED
NEAR THE BORDER OF TROPICAL STORM AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY
AS DID TWO AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT.

CELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
ESTIMATE OF 220/2.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND LIKELY TO REMAIN
SO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS NOT PICKED UP WELL ON THE
SHORT-TERM MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE RATHER MEAGER DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY REFLECTS THE RATHER COOL
SSTS...STABLE AIR...AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR THAT ARE
IMPACTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THESE
INHIBITING FACTORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM AND DEEP CONVECTION COULD CEASE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAX...SUCH AS IT IS...COMES TO AN END. AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR DEMISE OF CELIA
WITHIN ABOUT TWO DAYS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 15.3N 124.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 15.1N 124.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 15.0N 124.1W    25 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 15.0N 123.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 15.0N 123.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART