000
WTPZ44 KNHC 272031
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CELIA HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW COLD TOPS REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A THE LATEST
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.  SINCE CELIA WILL REMAIN OVER
WATERS AROUND 25C AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS...A
GRADUAL SPINDOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IS EXPECTED IN 36 TO 48
HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM.
 
THE BEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/04...A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE
WEST.  CELIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY BY MONDAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS.  THE NHC FORECAST TAKES CELIA SLOWLY WESTWARD PRIOR TO
DISSIPATION...AND IS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 15.7N 124.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.6N 124.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 15.6N 124.5W    25 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 15.6N 124.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 15.6N 124.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN