000
WTPZ44 KNHC 270859
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
CELLS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF CELIA. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 45 KT...AND IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 43 KT.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED...AND CELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN LESS
THAN 2 DAYS AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE AROUND DAY 3.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DECAYS TO A REMNANT LOW.
SOME REDUCTION IS FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH ERODES IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS COMPRISED OF A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 15.9N 123.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 124.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 124.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 16.0N 125.3W    25 KT
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 16.0N 125.8W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 16.0N 127.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART