000
WTPZ44 KNHC 262037
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010

WHAT LITTLE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON...IS
CONFINED TO THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  DVORAK CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 70 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB..AND
A 1730 UTC ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE WAS 67
KT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT. 
CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW IN 2 DAYS....AND WITH DISSIPATION IN 4
DAYS...OR POSSIBLY SOONER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. CELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHIN THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...CELIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD
SPEED IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST.  THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MULTI-MODEL BLEND.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 15.7N 122.2W    70 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 15.9N 123.1W    55 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 124.1W    40 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 124.6W    30 KT
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 16.0N 125.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA