000
WTPZ44 KNHC 261448
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010
 
CELIA CONTINUES TO DECAY THIS MORNING...WITH A SHRINKING BAND OF
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...INDICATIVE OF AN
0949 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS.  CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB..AND AN 0900 UTC CIMSS
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE WAS 83 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 80 KT CONSIDERING THAT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
CONSTRAINED AND THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 83 KT WAS A FEW HOURS
EARLIER.  RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE...REDUCING CELIA TO A
REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS OR POSSIBLY LESS.  AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
COOL WATER AND MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. 
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INTENSITY
PHILOSOPHY...AND MATCHES A COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE
LGEM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. CELIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 3 DAYS.  AFTERWARD...THE REMNANT LOW IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AS THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS BASED ON
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 15.6N 121.5W    80 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 16.1N 123.6W    50 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 16.2N 124.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W    30 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 16.2N 125.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 16.2N 126.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     01/1200Z 16.2N 127.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA