000
WTPZ44 KNHC 251432
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 0907 UTC AMSR-E AQUA-1
OVERPASS SHOW THAT CELIA HAS A WELL DEFINED 20 N MI EYE SURROUNDED
BY A VERY SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS SHOWING SOME
CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR HURRICANE.  THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE
EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOME THIS MORNING...AND IT APPEARS THAT CELIA
HAS COMMENCED ITS EXPECTED WEAKENING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 130 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 130 KT AND AN 0900 UTC
CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 135 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. 
SUBSEQUENTLY...CELIA IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
48 HOURS...AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 5 DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/11.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SHOULD REMAIN INTACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST. THIS
CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE CELIA TO SLOW AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS THE CYCLONE
DECAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 13.8N 118.1W   130 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W   115 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 15.3N 121.2W    95 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N 122.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 16.2N 123.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N 127.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA