000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250841 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010 CELIA IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL-DEFINED 15-20 N MI WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CLOSED EYEWALL WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF -75C TO -80C. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN 140 KT. THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CELIA CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER THAT THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE U. S. WEST COAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CAUSE CELIA TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION...WITH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING LITTLE AT DAYS 4-5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA...TVCN...AND TVCC CONSENSUS MODELS. IT IS LIKELY THAT CELIA HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY AS SHOWN IN ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. CELIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 24-36 HR...BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-60 HR...AND DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 117.0W 140 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 14.1N 118.6W 130 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 14.9N 120.4W 105 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W 80 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 16.1N 123.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 16.5N 124.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 16.5N 126.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN