000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250243 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 800 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN...WELL-DEFINED EYE...AND STRONG CONVECTION IN THE THE EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T7.0...140 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KT...MAKING CELIA A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. CELIA WILL SOON PASS OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING COMMENCING BEFORE THIS TIME TOMORROW. LATER ON... GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE NEAR THE HURRICANE...WHICH SHOULD AID THE WEAKENING PROCESS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD. THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND IS NOW MOVING 285/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF CELIA DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE HURRICANE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE AT THAT TIME... LEADING TO A LOWER-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT IS THAT THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN STEERING CURRENTS GETTING QUITE WEAK FOR DAYS 4 AND 5... AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT OF CELIA AT THAT TIME FRAME. CELIA IS TIED FOR THE STRONGEST EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD IN JUNE...WITH AVA OF 1973. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.1N 115.9W 140 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W 140 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 14.4N 119.5W 115 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 15.3N 121.1W 95 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 15.8N 122.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 124.3W 50 KT 96HR VT 29/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 30/0000Z 16.5N 126.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE