000
WTPZ44 KNHC 242036
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010
 
CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...WITH THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN NOW SYMMETRIC AND THE EYE WARMER AND MORE CIRCULAR THAN IT
WAS EARLIER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
ARE 6.0/115 KT AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE ALSO NEAR 6.0.
BASED ON THESE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 115 KT...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
 
THE INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH HAVE NOT PREDICTED THE INTENSIFICATION
OF CELIA WELL...CONTINUE TO SHOW VIRTUALLY NO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THE HURRICANE IS IN A LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ALLOWS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...CELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER STEADILY COOLER WATERS
AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS LESS FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT
TERM AND THEN LIES CLOSEST TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND
36 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10...AND THE EYE OF CELIA LIES
ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LARGE-SCALE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST ERODES
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  BEYOND A FEW
DAYS...CELIA IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED
AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND STEERING CURRENTS BECOME WEAK. THE NEW
NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
BUT SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON AN
ASCAT PASS AT 1658 UTC. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 12.8N 114.7W   115 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.4N 116.4W   120 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 14.1N 118.4W   110 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 120.2W    95 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 15.6N 121.7W    80 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N 124.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 16.5N 125.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI