000 WTPZ44 KNHC 241435 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 800 AM PDT THU JUN 24 2010 THE EYE OF CELIA HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BEGINNING AROUND 1200 UTC. IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SYMMETRIC OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 C IN THE EYEWALL. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/77 KT AND 5.5/102 KT. BASED ON THE SAB CLASSIFICATION AND THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE 1200 UTC...CELIA IS ONCE AGAIN UPGRADED TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT 100 KT...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING OF CELIA...AND THIS APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS THAT CELIA IS OVER AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE IN THE SHORT TERM AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO NEAR 26-27 C ALONG THE FOR CAST TRACK IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN STEADILY COOL BEYOND THAT. IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THEREAFTER...THE LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11...AND THE EYE OF CELIA LIES A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL...THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FORECAST REASONING. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST ERODES THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THIS PATTERN... COMBINED WITH CELIA BECOMING A SHALLOWER SYSTEM BY THEN...SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS OTHERWISE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 12.5N 113.9W 100 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 12.9N 115.7W 110 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 13.6N 117.9W 105 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 14.4N 119.8W 95 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 121.4W 85 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 124.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 16.5N 125.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH