000 WTPZ44 KNHC 240244 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 800 PM PDT WED JUN 23 2010 THE DEVELOPMENTAL TREND THAT CELIA WAS EXPERIENCING EARLIER HAS BEEN DISRUPTED. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS DISAPPEARED AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. AN 2129 UTC AMSU-B OVERPASS DEPICTED A CLOSED EYE BUT THE INNER CORE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS DETERIORATED FURTHER SINCE THEN. IN ADDITION...A WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURE NOTED SEVERAL HOURS AGO HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 4.5 AND 5.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THE THESE AND THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF CELIA IS LOWERED TO 90 KT. RECENT CENTER FIXES...THOUGH SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...YIELD THE SAME INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...280/11. LARGE- SCALE MODELS SHOW CELIA MAINTAINING A WESTERLY MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER...AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO IMPART CELIA WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS..MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...TAKING IT BACK ON A WESTERLY COURSE AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE RECENT INTENSITY TRENDS ARE PUZZLING...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT HAS LED TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STATE. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CELIA REMAINS IN A VERY LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. CELIA SHOULD REACH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS BEYOND 48 HOURS AND BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND WHICH SHOULD BECOME FASTER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH NO LONGER STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE AS MUCH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 12.4N 111.5W 90 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 12.8N 113.4W 100 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 13.5N 115.8W 105 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 14.1N 118.1W 100 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 14.8N 120.1W 90 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 123.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 16.2N 125.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 16.5N 126.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN