000 WTPZ44 KNHC 232038 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 200 PM PDT WED JUN 23 2010 CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EYE NOW MORE SYMMETRIC AND WARMER THAN EARLIER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5/102 KT AND THE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT...A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF CELIA IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE IT IS OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE CYCLONE REMAINING IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS...CELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN NUDGED UPWARD...DUE TO THE INITIAL HIGHER INTENSITY...AND REMAINS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED AND THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE EROSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF CELIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OFFSHORE THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE CELIA TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 12.3N 110.4W 100 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 12.6N 112.3W 110 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 13.1N 114.6W 115 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 13.8N 117.0W 110 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 14.5N 119.2W 100 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 125.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART