000
WTPZ44 KNHC 231449
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT WED JUN 23 2010
 
WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAD DEPICTED THE
EYE OF CELIA...IT IS NOW FINALLY VISIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE EYE WAS FIRST SEEN ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES AROUND
0700 UTC...THOUGH IT WAS QUITE RAGGED...AND SINCE THEN HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
T5.0/90 KT AND T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED
ON THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
85 KT. IN ADDITION...RECENT SSMI AND SSMIS IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
EYE OF CELIA IS MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED THIS MORNING.

CELIA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO 5 KT
OR LESS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE ALL OF THE INTENSITY SHOWS SOME
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...NONE OF THE MODELS
MAKE CELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER 48 HOURS...CELIA WILL TRACK
OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THAT SHOULD
CAUSE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD
AND IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE LGEM MODEL. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE WEAKENING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
CELIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW CELIA TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 12.2N 109.2W    85 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 12.5N 111.0W    90 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 12.9N 113.4W    95 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 13.5N 115.7W    95 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 14.2N 117.9W    90 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 15.5N 122.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 124.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART